Tropical Pacific SST Predictions with a Fully Coupled GCM
The coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) described in Schneider et al. (Mon. Wea. Rev., 1998, submitted) has been initialized using the ocean data assimilation product also described in Schneider et al. using subsurface ocean data available through November 1997. The model was integrated for 18 months to produce a forecast of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The figure shows the time series of NINO3 (average for the region 5ºS - 5ºN, 170ºW-120ºW) SST anomaly predicted by the coupled model (top panel) and a map of the tropical Pacific SST anomaly averaged for the December 1998 - February 1999 period. As shown in these figures, the model is predicting a transition from the warm El Niño event of 1997-98 to a moderate to strong cold La Niña event in 1998-99. The forecast is quite comparable to the COLA anomaly coupled model prediction.
This forecast is part of an ongoing research effort at COLA, and does not represent an official forecast. This forecast is not intended to be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions.