Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO and Other SST

Dynamic Models: The consensus among the dynamic models is for a warming trend in the tropical eastern Pacific SSTA over the next 2-3 seasons. Most of the models predict the SSTA returning to near normal by MAM2001. Some models (NCEP, UCLA, SNU) predict relatively weak warm (a moderate El Niño) conditions for DJF2000-01. Most of the other models (COLA coupled, LDEO, SIO, BMRC) predict near normal though the end of 2001. The exception is the COLA anomaly coupled model, which predicts relatively cold conditions through the end of 2001.

Statistical Models: The statistical models are predicting a return to near normal in the eastern Pacific over the next 6 months. The SSA-MEM and the constructed analogue models predict a modest El Niño for the boreal winter of 2001-02, whereas the CLIPPER, the LIM, the NCEP Markov model and the Neural Network model forecast near normal conditions for much of 2001. The LIM model forecasts relatively cool conditions in the tropical Atlantic for the boreal winter 2000-01.

For Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation

Dynamic Models: The ECPC RSM forecast for DJF 2000-01 calls for cold temperatures throughout most of the continental US. The ECPC global forecasts also have relatively cold temperatures throughout most of the Northern Hemisphere, with the exception of Europe and Africa. The RSM continental US precipitation forecast for DJF 2000-01calls for dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest and wet conditions in the southeast.

Statistical Models: The CCA based Canadian temperature forecast for JFM 2001calls for cold anomalies in the throughout eastern and central Canada. The statistical prediction for JJA Australian rainfall indicates greater than normal rainfall over western Australia and lest than normal rainfall over eastern Australia.