Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO and Other SST

Dynamic Models: There is considerable disagreement among the dynamic models over the next 2-3 seasons. For example, the SIO model and COLA fully coupled model predict strong warming with El Niño conditions developing in boreal summer and fall 2002. The SNU and LDEO models, however, are predicting near normal temperatures through boreal fall 2002. The SNU model is slightly warm and the LDEO model is slightly cold in the boreal fall 2002. Finally, the COLA anomaly coupled and the neural-dynamic hybrid models are prediction intensification of the cold anomalies through the next 9 months. The SIO Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) forecast calls for above normal SSTs for February-April 2002.

Statistical Models: While there is some disagreement among the statistical models, they are in much better agreement than the dynamic models. As an overall assessment, the statistical models are giving near normal conditions over the next 9 months. However, the NCEP Markov model is forecasting weak warm conditions in the west Pacific and weak cold conditions in the east Pacific for the boreal summer of 2002. The constructed analogue, neural net, linear inverse and clipper models are all giving near normal or slightly cold conditions. The nonlinear CCA forecast and the standard CCA forecast calls for weak warm anomalies developing in the boreal summer and fall of 2002.

For Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation

Dynamic Models: The CPTEC precipitation forecast for northeast Brazil calls for enhanced rainfall during March-May 2002. The dynamic forecast for north Brazil from the UK Met Office indicate near normal rainfall for February-May 2002. The ECPC forecast calls for below normal temperatures for most of southern US states, the tropical eastern Pacific, tropical eastern Atlantic, Siberia, the Southern Indian Ocean, and the southern Pacific coast of Australia The ECHAM3.6 model output statistically corrected forecast for southern Africa calls for near-normal rainfall except over the semi-arid western region and the southern coastal strip where above normal rainfall is forecasted.

Statistical Models: The CCA Canadian temperature forecast calls for relatively cool conditions throughout most of Canada through March 2002. The statistical forecast for north Brazil from the UK Met Office indicate near normal rainfall for February-May 2002.