Neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model forecasts of the tropical

Pacific sea surface temperatures

contributed by Youmin Tang and William W. Hsieh

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada

The forecast model is the neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model, with the assimilation of the NCEP sea level height anomaly data (Tang and Hsieh, 2003). Fig 1 shows our latest forecasts (initialized using data till the end of November, 2003), indicating that in the equatorial Pacific, slightly warm conditions will persist from spring to fall of 2004, relaxing towards near-normal conditions by late 2004.

References:

Tang, Y. and W. W. Hsieh, 2003: ENSO simulation and prediction in a hybrid coupled model with data assimilation. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan., 81:1-19.

Figure caption:

Fig.1: Predicted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the tropical Pacific. Contour interval is 0.25 degree Celsius, with positive anomalies indicated by solid contours, negative anomalies by dashed contours, and zero by thick contours.