Dynamic Models: The consensus among the dynamic models is for a warming trend in the tropical eastern Pacific SSTA over the next 2-3 seasons. Most of the models predict the SSTA returning to near normal by SON 2000 or DJF 2000-01. Some of the models (NCEP, KMA/SNU, COLA coupled, BMRC) suggest weak warm anomalies during the boreal winter of 2000-01. The COLA anomaly coupled model forecasts is the exception with strong cold anomalies developing during the winter of 2000-01.

Statistical Models: The statistical models are predicting a return to near normal in the eastern Pacific over the next 6 months. The MEM and CCA models are forecasting very modest warm conditions for the boreal winter of 2000-01, whereas the CLIPPER, the LIM, the NCEP Markov model and the Neural Network model forecast normal (or slightly below normal) conditions for the remainder of 2000. The LIM model forecasts the continuing decay of the warm SSTA in the Carribean and the north tropical Atlantic.

Dynamic Models: The ECPC RSM forecast for JA2000 calls for continuing drought in the southeast US and above normal rainfall in the currently dry northeast US. The dynamic forecast using a 9 member ensemble of the UKMO AGCM with persisted SSTA calls for normal or slightly above normal rainfall in tropical north Africa during July-September 2000. This forecast contrasts the statistical forecasts discussed below.

Statistical Models: The linear regression and discriminant analysis forecast from the UKMO for July-September 2000 tropical north Africa rainfall is normal to slightly below normal. The CNRS linear regression and discriminant analysis forecast also indicates normal rainfall for west Africa. The CCA forecast for Canadian temperatures indicates above normal temperatures over most of southern Canada during JAS2000.