Neural Network Model Forecasts of the NINO3

Neural Network Model Forecasts of the NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature

contributed by Benyang Tang¹, William W. Hsieh¹ and Fredolin T. Tangang²

1Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada

^{2Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Science & Natural Resources,
National University of Malaysia}

Web site of the UBC Climate Prediction Group:

http://www.ocgy.ubc.ca/projects/clim.pred/

The model we used to produce these forecasts is the same as that appearing in the September 1998 Issue of this bulletin. The reader is referred to that issue for details of our model.

Figure 1 shows the forecasts at leadtimes of 3, 6, 9, and 12-months, using data up to May 2000. Forecasts at 6- and 12-month leadtimes indicate that the current La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific will gradually return to near normal conditions by the end of 2000.