Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO and Other SST

Dynamic Models: The consensus among the dynamic models is for a warming trend in the tropical eastern Pacific SSTA over the next 2-3 seasons. Most of the models predict the SSTA returning to near normal by JJA2001. Some models (SIO, SNU, COLA Coupled) predict relatively weak warm (a moderate El Niño) conditions for DJF2000-01. Other models ( Neural-Hybrid, LDEO, UCLA) predict near normal though the middle of 2002. The exception is the COLA anomaly coupled model, which predicts relatively cold conditions through the middle of 2002.

Statistical Models: The statistical models are predicting a return to near normal in the eastern Pacific over the next 6 months. The SSA-MEM model predicts a modest El Niño for the boreal winter of 2001-02, whereas the constructed analogue CLIPPER, the LIM, the NCEP Markov model and the Neural Network model forecast near normal conditions for the end 2001 and early 2002. The LIM model forecasts near normal (slightly cold) conditions in the tropical Atlantic for the boreal winter 2000-01. A statistical probabilistic forecast indicates almost equal probabilities for "cool," "normal" and "warm" this coming boreal winter season.

For Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation

Dynamic Models: The ECPC global forecast indicates above normal temperatures for most areas in the Northern Hemisphere, except for parts of Europe, Northwest Canada and the Sahel during the June 2001 - September 2001 forecast period.

Statistical Models: The statistical Sahel wet season forecast from the UK Met Office calls for anomalously wet conditions throughout the region except for the extreme south