Neural Network Model Forecasts of the NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature

contributed by Benyang Tang *, William W. Hsieh * and Fredolin T. Tangang +

* Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada

+ Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Science & Natural Resources, National University of Malaysia,

Web site of the UBC Climate Prediction Group: http://www.ocgy.ubc.ca/projects/clim.pred/

The model we used to produce these forecasts is the same as that appearing in the September 1998 Issue of this bulletin. The reader is referred to that issue for details of our model.

Figure 1 shows the forecasts at lead times of 3, 6, 9, and 12-months, using data up to May 2001. Forecasts at 9- and 12-month leadtimes indicate that the tropical Pacific will remain slightly cold or normal until end of 2001, then turn to a cold condition in early 2002.

Figure 1. Forecasts of the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies by the neural networks at 3, 6, 9, and 12-month leadtimes. The solid curve shows the observed values and the circles, the predicted values.