Neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

contributed by Youmin Tang and William Hsieh

Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada

The forecast model is a neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model with the assimilation of the NCEP sea level height anomaly data (Tang and Hsieh, 2002), as in our previous forecasts (Tang and Hsieh, 2001).

Fig 1 shows our latest forecasts (initialized using data till the end of May, 2002), indicating that near normal conditions will persist during summer and fall 2002, and near normal to slightly cool conditions in early 2003.

References:

Tang, Y. and W.W. Hsieh, 2001: Neural-dynamic hybrid coupled model forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, March, 2001; June, 2001.

Tang, Y. and W.W. Hsieh, 2002. ENSO simulation and prediction in a hybrid coupled model with data assimilation. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan (submitted 2002/1/13).

Figure caption:

Fig.1: Predicted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the tropical Pacific. Contour interval is 0.5 degree Celsius, with positive anomalies indicated by solid contours, negative anomalies by dashed contours, and zero by thick contours.