Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO

Dynamic Models: The dynamic models are consistent in that no major events are predicted for the next 6-9 months and that relatively cold conditions for the boreal winter of 2004-05 are highly unlikely. Five dynamic models (SIO, UCLA, LDEO, COLA anomaly coupled, LEGOS dynamic atmosphere hybrid model, Neural Net hybrid model) forecast weak warm conditions for the boreal winter, whereas the IRI-COLA combined coupled models forecast near normal (through fall 2004) and the LEGOS statistical atmosphere hybrid model indicates weak cold conditions.

Statistical Models: The Linear Inverse Model (LIM) forecasts near normal for the next 6-9 months. The NCEP Markov model is initially cool but then warms through the boreal winter of 2004-05. The Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) model predicts weak warm to near normal through the boreal winter of 2004-05.

For Land Surface Temperature and Rainfall

The Sahel 2004 rainy season forecast from the UK Met. Office calls for wet conditions in the the northern regions and very dry conditions in the extreme south.