Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO and Other SST

Dynamic Models: The consensus among the dynamic models is for a warming trend in the tropical eastern Pacific SSTA over the next 2-3 seasons. Most of the models predict the SSTA returning to near normal by JJA 2000 or SON 2000, and there is some suggestion of very weak warm anomalies during the boreal winter of 2000-01. The BMRC and the COLA anomaly coupled model forecasts are the exception with cold anomalies persisting into early 2001.

Statistical Models: Similar to the dynamic models, the statistical models are predicting a warming trend in the eastern Pacific over the next 6 months. The MEM and CLIPPER models are forecasting modest warm conditions for the boreal winter of 2000-01, whereas the LIM, the NCEP Markov model and the Neural Network model forecast normal (or slightly below normal) conditions for the remainder of 2000. The LIM model forecasts the continuing decay of the warm SSTA in the Carribean and the north tropical Atlantic.

For Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation

Dynamic Models: The ECPC RSM forecast for MAM2000 temperatures calls for a colder than normal wester half of the US and a warmer eastern half of the US, particularly in the upper great lakes region. The precipitation forecast is for wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific northwest and the Ohio Valley during MAM2000. Using both persisted and forecasted SSTA and a large ensemble of AGCM runs, the CPTEC forecast calls for relatively wet conditions to prevail in northeast Brazil for MAM 2000. The dynamic forecast using a 9 member ensemble of the UKMO AGCM with persisted SSTA calls for wetter than normal conditions in the western regions of northeast Brazil and near normal in the far eastern regions of northeast Brazil during MAM2000.

Statistical Models: The linear regression and discriminant analysis forecast from the UKMO for northeast Brazil calls for wet to very wet conditions for the MAM2000 season. Similarly, the statistical forecast from the University of Wisconsin also calls for wetter than nomal conditions for March - June 2000 in the Noredeste region. Persistence dominates the CCA forecast over Canada during AMJ 2000 with warmer than normal temperatures in the lower half of the country. The multiple linear regression forecast for the US indicates relatively warm conditions in southern Texas during AMJ2000 and warm conditions during JJA 2000 in the far southeast and mid-Atlantic US. Global empirical forecasts indicate that there is an 80% probability that 2000 will be warmer than 1999.