Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO and Other SST

Dynamic Models: The consensus among the dynamic models is for a warming trend in the tropical eastern Pacific SSTA over the next 2-3 seasons. Most of the models predict the SSTA returning to near normal by MAM2001. Some models (NCEP, UCLA, SNU, COLA Coupled) predict relatively weak warm (a moderate El Niño) conditions for DJF2000-01. Other models ( Neural-Hybrid, LDEO,, BMRC) predict near normal though the middle of 2002. The exception is the COLA anomaly coupled model, which predicts relatively cold conditions through the middle of 2002.

Statistical Models: The statistical models are predicting a return to near normal in the eastern Pacific over the next 6 months. The SSA-MEM and the constructed analogue models predict a relatively strong El Niño for the boreal winter of 2001-02, whereas the CLIPPER, the LIM, the NCEP Markov model and the Neural Network model forecast near normal conditions for the end 2001 and early 2002. The LIM model forecasts near normal (slightly cold) conditions in the tropical Atlantic for the boreal winter 2000-01.

For Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation

Dynamic Models: The CPTEC AGCM forecast for MAM2001 calls for positive rainfall anomalies in the northwest extreme of Nordeste and negative anomalies on the eastern side of the region. The ECPC global forecast calls below normal temperatures for most areas in the Northern Hemisphere, except for parts of the Middle East and Northern Africa. Higher temperatures are forecasted for South America.

Statistical Models: The statistical forecast for the 2001 western wildfire season call for positive anomalies (although weaker than last year) in an arc from eastern Washington state through the Rockies and New Mexico. The statistical MAM2001 forecast from the UK Met Office calls for average to dry conditions in the extreme east and south portion of Northeast Brazil. Wet conditions are forecasted for the western and northern portions of the region.