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</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="2050"/> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapelayout v:ext="edit"> <o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1"/> </o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--> </head> <body bgcolor=white lang=EN-US link=blue vlink="#551A8B" style='tab-interval: .5in' alink="#ff0000"> <div class=Section1> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span class=GramE><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>SST predictions with an intermediate coupled model of the tropical Pacific.</span></b></span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p align=center style='text-align:center'><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>contributed</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> by Boris Dewitte<sup>1</sup>, <span class=SpellE>Dasha</span> <span class=SpellE>Gushchina</span> <sup>2</sup> and Yves <span class=SpellE>duPenhoat</span> <sup>1</sup></span> </p> <p align=center style='text-align:center'><i><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>1</span></sup></i><i><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>LEGOS/CNES/IRD 14 Av. E. <span class=SpellE>Belin</span>, 31401 Toulouse <span class=SpellE>Cedex</span> 4, France</span></i> <br> <i><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>2</span></sup></i><i><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Meteorological Department, Geographical Faculty, Moscow State University, <span class=SpellE>Vorobyevy</span> gory, Moscow, 119899, Russia</span></i></p> <p><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Forecasts of the tropical Pacific SST are presented here using two intermediate coupled models. The oceanic component consists in a three <span class=SpellE>baroclinic</span> mode ocean and the mixed layer model differs from the Cane and <span class=SpellE>Zebiak</span> (1987) model in the parameterization of the vertical advection terms and the basic state (cf. <span class=SpellE>Dewitte</span>, 2000). The atmospheric component is either a statistical atmospheric model based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of observed sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress anomalies or a Gill(1980)'s dynamical tropical atmosphere. Initial conditions for the prediction runs are produced in a coupled mode by nudging the observed winds (FSU winds for the period 1961-1992, ERS1-2 winds from may 1992 until <span class=SpellE>september</span> 2000, <span class=SpellE>QuikSCAT</span> winds from <span class=SpellE>october</span> 2000) to the simulated winds as in Chen et al. (1995). The skill of the models for the NINO3 SST index over various periods and for the 1997-1998 El Niño is presented in <span class=SpellE>Dewitte</span> et al. (2002). <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style='font-size:10.0pt'><a href="sstaml36912mod2.jpg">Figure 1</a> shows model predicted SST and wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific for the next four seasons in the case of the statistical atmosphere (model 1). These are ensemble averages of 12 forecasts started from Jun-Jul-Aug 2008 conditions. For producing the initial conditions of the individual forecasts, random noise was added to the system with an approach similar to <span class=SpellE>Kirtman</span> and <span class=SpellE>Schopf</span> (1998). Models 1 and 2 (<a href="sstaml36912mod1.jpg">Figure 2</a>) are predicting a return to slightly warm conditions in 2009. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Caveat: The forecasts shown above are experimental in nature. The reader is forewarned that the methods/forecasts are new and subject to future change and improvement. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>References:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Chen, D., S. E. <span class=SpellE>Zebiak</span>, A. J. <span class=SpellE>Busalacchi</span>, and M. A. Cane, 1995: An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting: Implication for predictability. <i>Science,</i> 269, 1699-1702. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=SpellE><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Dewitte</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt'> B., 2000: Sensitivity of an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific to its oceanic vertical structure. <i>J. Climate</i>, 13, 2363-2388. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=SpellE><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Dewitte</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt'> B., D. <span class=SpellE>Gushchina</span>, Y. <span class=SpellE>duPenhoat</span> and S. <span class=SpellE>Lakeev</span>, 2002: On the importance of subsurface variability for ENSO simulation and prediction with intermediate coupled models of the Tropical Pacific: A case study for the 1997-1998 El Niño. <span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><i>Geoph</i></span></span><span class=GramE><i>.</i></span><i> Res. <span class=SpellE>Lett</span>.</i>, vol. 29, no. 14, 1666, 10.1029/2001GL014452<i>.</i> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Gill, A., Some simple solutions heat-induced tropical circulation.</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt'> <i>Q. J. R. <span class=SpellE>Meteorol</span>. <span class=GramE>Soc.<span style='font-style:normal'>, 106, 447-462, 1980.</span></span></i> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=SpellE><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Kirtman</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>, B. P. and P. S. <span class=SpellE>Schopf</span>, 1998: Decadal variability in ENSO predictability <span class=GramE>an</span> prediction, <i>J. Climate</i>, 11, 2804-2822 <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=SpellE><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Zebiak</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>, S. E. and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. <i>Mon. <span class=SpellE>Wea</span>. Rev.</i>, 115, 2262-2278. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Figure Captions:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style='font-size:10.0pt'><a href="sstaml36912mod2.jpg">Fig. 1</a>:&nbsp; model<span class=GramE>&nbsp; forecast</span> of tropical Pacific SST (°C) and wind stress (<span class=SpellE>Dyn</span>/cm<sup>2</sup>) anomalies during MAM 2009, JJA 2009, SON 2009 and DJF 2009/10. Each forecast is an ensemble average of 12 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs <span class=SpellE>perturbated</span> by random noise. Observed data through 28<sup>st</sup> of February 2009 was used to produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA amplitude larger than 0.5°C (lower than -0.5°C) are in yellow-orange (blue). The <span class=SpellE>longuest</span> wind stress arrow on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side. Only wind stress anomalies for which wind modulus is larger than 0.1 <span class=SpellE>Dyn</span>/cm<sup>2</sup> are plotted. <br> <a href="sstaml36912mod1.jpg">Fig.2</a>: same as <a href="sstaml36912mod2.jpg">Fig. 1</a> but for the coupled model using the dynamical atmosphere. <o:p></o:p></span></p> </div> </body> </html>