Neural Network Model Forecasts of the NINO3.4 Sea

Surface Temperature

contributed by Benyang Tang ¹, William W. Hsieh ¹ and Fredolin T. Tangang ²

¹Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada

²Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Science & Natural Resources, National University of Malaysia,

The model we used to produce this forecasts is the same as that appearing in the September 1998 issue of this bulletin. The reader is referred to that issue for details of our model. Figure 1 shows the forecasts at leadtimes of 3, 6, 9, and 12-months, using data up to February 1999. Forecasts of all four leadtimes indicate that current La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific has peaked and will weaken slightly, resulting in a weak to moderate Niña for the 1999/2000 winter.