SMIP2 / HFP

Purpose:

to investigate 1st season actual predictability by means of either or both of:

two-tier forecasts based on initial conditions and the AGCM response to predicted values of SST and sea-ice
coupled model forecasts using an atmosphere-ocean forecast system

to establish the actual 1-season forecast skill that is currently possible in a realistic operational, objective context and to provide a hindcast data set that may be used to:

demonstrate currently achievable 1-season forecast skill for a range of variables
support the development and application of probability forecast methods including measures of reliability
encourage the further development and application of ensemble methods including multi-model approaches
demonstrate improvement and justify changes in operational 1-season forecast approaches and methods

Two-tier forecasts:

AGCM initial conditions are at the choice of the participant but must not include any information from the future.

land initial conditions are at the choice of the participant but must not include any information from the future.

option 1: use "reanalysis" land surface data modified to your model (recommended)
option 2: use model climatologies from an AMIP run.

option 1: persist the observed SSTA anomaly from the month preceding the forecast period (i.e., this anomaly is added to the climatological seasonal cycle of SST's)
option 2: statistical or other objective forecast of SSTA which is not developed with nor makes use of future information (e.g. climatology, relaxation of anomalies toward zero with some time scale, other statistical forecast, anomalies from an ocean model initialized and run separately, etc.)

Sea ice: based on the associated sea ice data but containing no future information.

Coupled model forecasts:

Atmosphere, ocean and land initial conditions are at the choice of the participant but must not include any information from the future.
please identify how the coupled model is initialized and the lead time for the forecasts

Data:

Basic and optional data entries are shown in the Table below. The data in any or all entries in the "optional additional" columns is welcomed.
The four seasons used are DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON.
Some data currently available at IRI. New submissions, please contact Ben Kirtman (kirtman@cola.iges.org) for procedures.
The availability of data at local web sites is encouraged.

	Basic SMIP2/HFP	Optional additional for SMIP-2/HFP
Integrations	4 months 4 seasons 22 years (1979-2000) 6 or more members	7 months 12 seasons (monthly) 30 years (1971-2000) 10 member ensemble
Data	Stored at PCMDI Monthly means of: ts, tas, pr, psl Monthly means of: ta (700, 850hPa) ua, va (200, 850hPa) zg (500, 1000hPa)	Daily values of: pr zg (500hPa)
Data definitions	ts tas pr psl ta ua va zg snc snw mrso mrsos hfls hfss tauu tauv cl clt rlt hus	ground temperature surface (2m) air temperature total precipitation rate mean sea-level pressure air temperature eastward wind northward wind geopotential height snow cover snow depth (water equivalent) total soil water content surface soil water content (upper 0.1m) surface latent heat flux (+ upward) surface sensible heat flux (+ upward) eastward wind stress (+ eastward) northward wind stress (+ northward) cloud fraction total cloud amount outgoing longwave radiation(+ downward) specific humidity	K K kg/(m2 s) N/m2 K m/s m/s m % kg/m2 kg/m2 kg/m2 W/m2 Wm2 N/m2 N/m2 % % W/m2 kg/kg