Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO and Other SST

Dynamic Models: The consensus among the dynamic models is for a warming trend in the tropical eastern Pacific SSTA over the next 2-3 seasons. Most of the models predict the SSTA returning to near normal by SON 2000 or DJF 2000-01. Some of the models (NCEP, KMA/SNU, COLA coupled, UCLA, BMRC) suggest weak warm anomalies during the boreal winter of 2000-01. The COLA anomaly coupled model forecasts is the exception with strong cold anomalies developing during the winter of 2000-01. The SIO model forecasts normal temperatures for the next 2-3 seasons.

Statistical Models: The statistical models are predicting a return to near normal in the eastern Pacific over the next 6 months. The SSA-MEM forecasts very modest warm conditions for the boreal winter of 2000-01, whereas the CLIPPER, the LIM, the NCEP Markov model and the Neural Network model forecast normal (or slightly below normal) conditions for the remainder of 2000 and early 2001. The LIM model forecasts relatively cool conditions in the tropical Atlantic for the boreal winter 2000-01.

For Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation

Dynamic Models: The ECPC RSM forecast for September-November 2000 calls for continuing warm temperatures in the central US. The AGCM forecast of east African rainfall anomalies from the UKMO calls for dry conditions during October-December 2000. This AGCM forecast contrasts the statistical forecasts discussed below.

Statistical Models: The linear regression and discriminant analysis forecast from the UKMO for October-December 2000 east Africa rainfall is normal to slightly above normal. The linear regression forecast for the US calls for warm conditions in the south east during boreal fall and warm conditions in the southwest during boreal winter. The stream flow probabilities favor the middle tercile in the western states of the US with locally enhanced lower and upper terciles in the extreme northeast and southeast.