Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO and Other SST

Dynamic Models: The consensus among the dynamic models is for a warming trend in the tropical eastern Pacific SSTA over the next 2-3 seasons except for the COLA anomaly coupled model which predicts enhanced cooling over the next 6 months. Some of the models (LDEO, UCLA, COLA coupled) predict a short lived relatively weak El Niño for the boreal winter of 2001-02. Other models (SIO, NCEP) predict a weak extended warming trend for the next 12 months.

Statistical Models: The statistical forecasts are more varied than the dynamical forecasts. For example, The LIM, the neural network and the probabilistic forecast all indicated relative cold conditions for the next 2-3 seasons. The constructed analogue and CLIPPER forecast near normal conditions and the remaining models (Non-Linear CCA, SSA-MEM and NCEP Markov) predict warming trends of various degrees.

For Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation

Dynamic Models: The ECPC global forecast indicates above normal temperatures for most areas in the Northern Hemisphere, except for parts of Europe, Northwest Canada and the Sahel during the September 2001 - November 2001 forecast period.

Statistical Models: The east African rainy season during October 2001-December 2001 is predicted to be dry to very dry. The CCA Canadian temperature forecast calls for relatively cool conditions in eastern Canada and relative warm conditions in western Canada.