Neural Network Model Forecasts of the NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature

contributed by Benyang Tang *, William W. Hsieh * and Fredolin T. Tangang ⁺

^* Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada

⁺ Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Science & Natural Resources, National University of Malaysia

Web site of the UBC Climate Prediction Group: http://www.ocgy.ubc.ca/projects/clim.pred/ The model we used to produce these forecasts is the same as that appearing in the September 1998 Issue of this bulletin. The reader is referred to that issue for details of our model.

Figure 1 shows the forecasts at leadtimes of 3, 6, 9, and 12-months, using data up to August 2001. Our forecasts indicate cold conditions in the tropical Pacific from the end of 2001 to the first half of 2002.

Figure captions

Figure 1. Forecasts of the neural networks at 3, 6, 9, and 12-month leadtimes. The solid curve shows the observed values and the circles, the predicted values.