Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO

Dynamic Models: The dynamic models are consistent in that no major events are predicted for the next 6-9 months and that relatively cold conditions for the boreal winter of 2004-05 are highly unlikely. The models generally agree on some level of warming during the next 6 months. The COLA anomaly coupled, combined IRI-COLA fully coupled, LDEO, and UCLA forecasts all call for relatively weak warming of the next 2-3 seasons. The SIO forecast is calling for stronger warming give a moderate warm ENSO conditions for the boreal fall and winter.

Statistical Models: The Linear Inverse Model (LIM) forecasts near normal for the next 6-9 months. The NCEP Markov model is calling for a moderate warm ENSO conditions this boreal fall and winter. The non-linear CCA forecast calls for weak warm to near normal for the next 2-3 seasons. The Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) model predicts weak warm to near normal through the boreal winter of 2004-05.

For Land Surface Temperature and Rainfall

Wetter than normal conditions for October-December 2004 are forecasted for the Uruguay-Rio Grande do Sul region based on CCA methods. Using both dynamic and statistical methods the east African rainfall is predicted to be in the dry quint category for the October-December rainy season.