Dynamic Models: Almost all the dynamic models (NCEP, COLA anomaly coupled, LDEO3, SIO) agree in predicting that La Niña conditions will continue and even amplify over the next two to three seasons. These models also generally agree that the SSTA will rapidly return to normal during the spring or summer of 2000. The most notable exceptions are the unflux corrected COLA coupled model and the BMRC model, which predict near normal temperatures for winter 1999-2000. The LDEO1 coupled model also has near normal SSTA in the tropical Pacific and relative strong cold anomalies in mid-2000.

Statistical Models: The statistical models (linear inverse model, neural network model, CLIPER model, constructed analogue model, Markov model, maximum entropy method) are predicting that the current La Niña will evolve similar to the forecasts produced by most of the dynamic models. The La Niña conditions are forecasted to persist and amplify through the winter 1999-2000 and decay rapidly during the following spring season. The linear inverse model is predicting the continued development of cold SSTA in the Caribbean and the north tropical Atlantic over the next couple of seasons.

Dynamic Models: With persisted SSTA, the regional spectral model forecasts increasing fire potential along the southeast coast of the U.S. The NCEP AGCM forecast using predicted SSTA in the tropical Pacific calls for a tendency toward relatively warm temperatures and dry conditions for the south-central and eastern U.S. through winter 1999-2000. The UK meteorological office AGCM forecast using persisted SSTA calls for 56% chance of dry conditions in east Africa.

Statistical Models: The linear regression forecast for U.S. surface temperature during OND 1999 calls for above normal temperatures over much of the southern tier of the U.S. The linear regression precipitation forecast during OND 1999 calls for below normal rainfall in portions of the southwest and above normal in northern high plains and northern Rockies. For JFM 2000 temperatures, the linear regression forecast is for warmer temperatures in the southern U.S. and colder than normal temperatures in the northwest U.S. Both east African statistical forecasts call for below normal rainfall for OND 1999. Statistical forecasts for the Caroní river call for above normal discharge during February-March 2000.