V.1 National Assessment Background Paper

Eileen Shea

The following material was provided as background for discussion of the proposed National Global Change Assessment Process during the GEA 1997 Workshop. The cover memo from Workshop Co-Chair, Eileen Shea, is accompanied by draft materials on the National Assessment provided by the involved Federal agencies.

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MEMORANDUM FOR: Bar Harbor Workshop Participants

FROM: Eileen Shea

SUBJECT: Opportunity of Input

In addition to our planned discussions related to general principles and historical experience in the climate assessment and public policy context, we have been offered an opportunity to provide some guidance on an emerging national assessment activity being initiated in the context of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). As we will discuss Monday morning, our Federal sponsors are hopeful that some of the insights developed during our week in Bar Harbor will be useful in guiding the evolution of this new activity.

The attached draft document outlines the background and terms of the reference of a "National Assessment Working Group" of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Program in the context of the National Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (NSTC/CENR). As you can see from the attached documentation, this Working Group is part of an assessment infrastructure which the USGCRP agencies propose to establish in order to fulfill a legislative requirement which calls for regular preparation and submission to the President and Congress of periodic global change "assessment" itself is expected to serve a number of purposes—from a state-of-the-science review of recent research and current uncertainties to an analysis of current and future trends in "global change, both human-induced and natural". While the SGCR has annually provided Congress with OUR CHANGING PLANET documents which highlight recent scientific accomplishments and outline research programs and plans for the upcoming fiscal year, the USGCRP agencies have not, until now taken explicit steps to establish the assessment process described in the legislation.

As we turn our attention to this opportunity later this week, it will be helpful for us to thing about the proposed SGCE activity in the context of related Federal activities such as: U.S. participation in the upcoming third IPCC assessment (and subsequent IPCC assessments); the ongoing series of workshops on the regional consequences of climate variability and change being sponsored by the USGCRP agencies and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; and targeted studies and deliberations associated with developing a U.S. position for the Kyoto discussions of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is my hope that our Federal colleagues will be able to provide some insights into this broader context for the proposed new assessment activity.

I hope that you will share my own sense that this is an exciting and important opportunity to explore a "real-world" application of the results of this year’s GEA program and our Workshop.

To: Subcommittee on Global Change Research

From: Ari Partinos, SGCR Liaison to the WG on National Assessments

Subject: Proposed for SGCR Preparation and Review of National Assessments

REQUESTED ACTION: Consideration and Approval at SGCR Meeting on June 16

Requirement: To establish a process and infrastructure under the SGCR for the preparation and review of periodic national assessments of global environmental changes and their implications for policy and management decisions for our Nation.

 Rationale: Section 606 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-606) mandates the preparation and submission to the President and the Congress on a periodic basis (not less frequently than every four years) an assessment which (1) integrates, evaluations and interprets the findings of scientific research from the USGCRP, and discusses scientific uncertainties associated with these findings; (2) analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, social systems and institutions, and biological diversity, and (3) analyzes current trends in global change, bother human-induced and nature, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25-100 years.

 Proposal: It is proposed that an infrastructure be established under the SGCR to provide for defining the scope and type of national assessment to be prepared of global environmental changes and their implications for regional and national environments and for policy and management decisions. The assessment infrastructure will also provide for guiding, preparing, and overseeing the peer review of such assessments and ensuring that they are independent, robust, relevant to the needs of decision makers, including resource manager, and are scientifically and technically well based. A three-part structure is proposed: 

1. The National Assessments Working Group (NAWG) of the SGCR would facilitate the coordination and preparation of national-scale assessments to document the current state of knowledge on the consequences of global change and their implications for policy and management decisions for our Nation. This responsibility would also include establishing the Assessment Alliance and the necessary review process. A proposed Terms of Reference for this Working Group is provided. 

2. The Assessment Alliance for each assessment would be composed of an Assessment Steering Committee (ASC), an Assessment Coordination Office (ACO), and Assessment Teams. The ASC would be drawn from the ranks of highly respected scientists and stakeholders with interests in a given assessment area. Its responsibility would include developing the final design of the science assessment, overseeing the intellectual structure and content of the assessment, and preparing an interpretive summery assessment report that could, for example, become the official assessment report to be transmitted by the NSTC to Congress. The ACO would be composed of dedicated staff (director plus supporting staff) that would facilitate the design and preparation of the science assessment, the summary assessment, and their review and publication. Assessment Teams (ATs) would be responsible for the actual preparation of the sections of the science assessment. The ATs would be composed of scientists, resource planners and managers, and other experts drawn from a broad range of sources and disciplines, whatever their affiliation, who are actively engaged in research and assessment activities relevant to the defined scope of the assessment. The members of the ATs would be nominated by the ACO and would be approved by the ASC and the NAWG. 

3. A Review Process would be established that would incorporate expert and stakeholder peer review of each element of the assessment. The process might involve a peer review committee, general release of drafts of the report for comment, review meeting, or other approaches.

Proposed Financial Support for the Assessment: Because the undertaking of USGCRP assessments is the collective responsibility of the participating agencies, under the overall leadership of the NSTC and the CENR through it Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR), it is proposed that the SGCR agencies would financially support the assessment process and the infrastructure of the Assessment Alliance using an agreed upon formula for distributing the assessment costs. Outside funding would be encouraged to enhance outreach of the assessment process and the review process.

TERMS OF REFERENCE

(Revised to June 13, 1997)

National Assessments Working Group

of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

The National Assessments Working Group is hereby established by action of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR). 

The Working Group serves as port of the deliberative process of the SGCR, which provides overall guidance and direction for the USGCRP. The SGCR shall serve as the forum for developing consensus and resolving issues raised by the Working Group process. 

The purpose of the National Assessments Working Group is to facilitate the coordination and preparation of national-scale assessments to document the current state of knowledge on the consequences of global change and their implications for policy and management decisions for our Nation. These assessments, as directed by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 under section 606 of Public Law 101-606, will:

1. integrate, evaluate, and interpret the findings of scientific research and discuss scientific uncertainties associated with these findings;
2. analyze the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, social systems and institutions, and biological diversity; and
3. analyze current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and project major trends for the subsequent 25-100 years.

 As appropriate, the assessments will serve as U. S. inputs to international assessments such as those conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or other international entities.

 The Working Group will have responsibility for designing and implementing a process to produce independent, robust, relevant, scientifically-based national-scale assessments of global environmental change and its implications for the regional and national environment, for natural resource management, for socio-economic systems, for human health, for policy and management decision-making, and for other consequences for society consistent with the legal requirement for the assessment and other applicable law. The process employed to conduct national-scale assessment shall utilize various mechanisms to engage prominent and respected scientists and resource planners and manager, public and private decision makers, and the public in the national assessment process. In carrying out this charge the Working Group will work closely with federal agencies, the scientific community, and other interested stakeholders.

 As its first national-scale assessment, to be completed in 1999, the Working Group shall prepare an assessment of the implications of climate change and its relationship with other stresses for the regions and sectors of the United States.

 The Chair and Vice Chair(s) of the Working Group shall be appointed by the Chair of the SGCR in consultation with the SGCR. All agencies that are members of the SGCR are entitled to nominate members of the Working Group.

 The Working Group will recommend to the Chair of the SBCR the nature of stakeholder advice needed to accomplish its mission.

 All members of the Working Group will be full-time federal employees or IPAs who are allowed reimbursement for travel expenses by their agencies in accordance with standard federal travel regulations.

 Unless renewed by the Chair of the SGCR, the National Assessments Working Group shall terminate of January 1, 2000.

Robert W. Corell

Chair, Subcommittee on Global Change Research

Date: