Time evolution of the NINO3 SSTA forecast. The dashed curve is for the forecast initialized in July 1994 and the dotted curve corresponds to the forecast initialized in January 1995. The solid curve is the observed SSTA.
Published in the Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, March 1995
The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at COLA, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions. They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the ocean-atmosphere system.
Shown below are the NINO3 time series of the predicted SSTA for two forecasts; one initialized on July 1, 1994 and the other on January 1, 1995. The observed (Reynolds, 1988 blended SST analysis) NINO3 SSTA for July-December 1994 is also shown. The July forecast predicts relatively warm conditions beginning in December 1994 persisting through August 1995 and becoming relatively cold in fall and early winter. The observed NINO3 SSTA indicates warming through December 1994 beginning about two months earlier than in the July forecast. The January 1995 forecast starts warmer than normal and gives warm temperatures in the eastern Pacific through the fall of 1995. The January 1995 forecast gives relatively cold temperatures in the winter and spring of 1996. During most of the 6 month overlap between the July and January forecast the evolution of the NINO3 SST is in agreement.
Time evolution of the NINO3 SSTA forecast. The dashed curve is for the forecast initialized in July 1994 and the dotted curve corresponds to the forecast initialized in January 1995. The solid curve is the observed SSTA.
The predicted (January 1, 1995 initial condition) SSTA for the summer of 1995 and the winter of 1995-96 is shown below. In the summer of 1995 the model predicts a 1.0-1.5 ēK SSTA throughout a sizable region in central Pacific and somewhat weaker anomaly in the eastern Pacific. In the following winter season the prediction gives a dipole structure to the tropical Pacific SSTA with colder than normal temperatures in the east and warmer than normal conditions in the west.
Top panel shows the June-July-August 1995 mean SST anomaly for the forecast initialized in January 1995. Bottom panel show the
December-January-February 1995-96 SSTA for the forecast initialized in January 1995.
